Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
