A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
